Monday, July 23, 2012

Looking deeper into what's driving the mobile market now


While everyone mostly talks about market share in the mobile space and how Android has significantly passed Apple in phones, they miss the much more important driver.  Profits !!!   Businesses and products die or get killed without profits.

Sadly for you, I have to tell ya' - RIM is dying fast.  The only news about RIM in the last year, was bad news.  RIM is now on death watch.

Oh yeah, and Apple OWNS tablets.  And the market share pundits further miss the point by often not including all iOS devices in the share numbers (iPhone, iPad and iPod Touch).

This article talks about profits on just the hardware:  The phone market in 2012: a tale of two disruptions
"So if the industry is booming but the majority of participants in the industry are loss making (and surprisingly so) then what is going on? There are two answers: new market disruption and low end disruption."
Profits on apps and MINDshare in the apps space:
From ComputerWorld, Advantage Apple: iPhone users love to use their phones (Check out the stats in the "Some highlights" section)
"When it comes to people actually using their devices, there's no doubt at all that Apple [AAPL] is winning the smartphone wars -- just look at the evidence, for app sales, Web browsing, OS upgrades and more, the iPhone is King of the Hill."
From MacNN, Survey: Gamers spend 5X more on iOS titles than Android
"American gamers spend five times more on iOS games compared to those on Android..."
From Business Insider, Why Apps Are On iPhone First And Android Second
"Despite its dominance in market share, Android is still the second option for big companies developing applications, says Ryan Matzner.  Matzner is the director of Fueled, an app design and development company. One thing he almost never hears from his clients is that they'd like to start out with an Android app."
From TechCrunch, Yep. Developers Are Still Building For Apple’s iOS Over Android By A Factor Of 2-to-1.
"The main reasons for iOS’ continued edge are that monetization is just that much easier plus there are fewer fragmentation issues." 
“Android delivers less gain and more pain than iOS, which we believe is the key reason 7 out of every 10 apps built in the new economy are for iOS versus Android”

Bottom line is...
  • Everyone now acknowledges that RIM is the walking dead, and Nokia and many others are nearly dead or only able to scrape out a miserable existence.  The only exceptions will be Apple and Samsung.
  • Windows Phone continues to be an industry joke.  And poor Nokia has tied their future to it.
  • There are only 2 smartphone platforms:  Apple iOS and Android
  • Profits mean far more than market share.  And Apple's profits and iOS application profits are crushing absolutely everyone right now, including Android.
  • While Apple's iOS leads Android by far, this will change as Android improves.  So mobile app developers should build for iOS, then Android when they can afford it.
  • Side point:  And in mobile in the enterprise.  Apple iOS owns it.  Android is MIA.  And Windows.... continues to be an industry joke (if Surface actually works in 2013, MS might have a chance to make a small dent).

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